Latest writing and updates:
War on the Rocks: “As Assad Turns to Syria’s Southwest, Washington Faces a Choice”
Out today, I have a new piece for War on the Rocks that’s a companion to our Crisis Group report on Syria’s southwestern de-escalation. I focus on the United States’ role in the de-escalation agreement and how U.S. policy on Syria broadly has frequently undercut the deal – but why the southwest still matters and deserves an urgent U.S. response…
Valdai Club: “Syria: Humanitarian Corridors”
My piece for the Valdai Club:
Russia has proposed "humanitarian corridors" to evacuate Damascus's East Ghouta suburbs and the area around the Tanaf base. Those corridors are unlikely to accomplish humanitarian ends because – realistically, in both areas – civilians can't count on safety on the other side. Yet Ghouta and Tanaf both present opportunities for Russia to play a role that is stabilizing and life-saving, if only it can bring its Syrian partner on-side…
The Century Foundation: “Managing Syrian Conflict May Be Possible. Resolving It Isn’t” (with Thanassis Cambanis)
In this last piece for The Century Foundation, my TCF colleague Thanassis Cambanis and I debate reconstruction, humanitarian assistance, and the trajectory of Western Syria policy broadly…
Sina'at al-Fikr: "The mujahideen at this stage shouldn’t defend according to the principle, 'Until the last man, and the last bullet.'"
Below is how I think Hayat Tahrir al-Sham may now be fighting the Syrian regime’s forces, as the latter push deeper into rebel-held Idlib. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seems not to be mounting a valiant, heels-dug-in last stand, but rather a fighting, attritive retreat paired with asymmetric insurgent tactics…
War on the Rocks: "America in Search of an Un-Geneva for Syria"
For War on the Rocks, I’ve written a companion piece to my recent Century Foundation commentary on America’s re-investment in Syria’s Geneva talks. In this latest, I try to answer: If Geneva won’t secure U.S. interests in Syria, what will? …
Perspectives on Terrorism: "The Strategic Logic of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham"
New paper from me, for a special al-Qaeda-focused issue of Perspectives on Terrorism:
For this issue, I wrote on the strategic thinking behind the 2017 establishment of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the latest iteration of former Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusrah…
The Century Foundation: "Syrian Humanitarian 'Lifeline' Goes to Vote"
Today at The Century Foundation, I have a new report on the stakes of Tuesday’s expected vote to renew UN Security Council Resolution 2165 – the international legal mandate for Syria’s cross-border humanitarian response…
The Century Foundation: "Geneva Talks Will Not Salvage U.S. Syria Policy"
At The Century Foundation, I’ve written about America’s reinvestment in Geneva peace talks and how – as I understand it – Russia is simultaneously managing Geneva and its own set of parallel processes…
The Century Foundation: "Turkey Through the Syrian Looking Glass"
For The Century Foundation (originally published November 28):
More than a month after Turkey’s intervention to enforce a “de-escalation” in Syria’s Idlib province, there’s still little clarity on exactly what Turkey is doing in Syria…
War on the Rocks: "What an Unfolding Humanitarian Disaster in a U.S.-Protected Enclave Tells Us About American Strategy in Syria"
New from me today on War on the Rocks:
The American base in Tanaf, in Syria’s southeastern desert, has taken on outsized political import. It was originally meant to be a staging ground for a southern prong of the counter-ISIS military campaign. Then, for a brief, overheated moment, it was supposedly where America would block an Iranian “land bridge.” Now it is a symbol of Washington’s refusal to yield to Syrian, Iranian, and Russia pressure and, in theory, key leverage on Damascus and its allies…
World Politics Review: "What Will a Post-ISIS Political Order in Syria Actually Look Like?"
New from me for World Politics Review:
The United States and its Coalition allies never had a real political vision for a post-ISIS Syria. Now the country’s post-ISIS political order will be defined by the ground reality of how, militarily, ISIS lost…
The Century Foundation: "Saving America's Syrian Ceasefire"
My latest for The Century Foundation:
I went to Jordan in September to get a sense of one of America’s last major policy efforts in Syria: the “de-escalation” agreement covering Syria’s southwest. The de-escalation is the product of months of trilateral negotiations between the United States, Russia, and Jordan. So far it has yielded a clear reduction in violence – but its future is uncertain…
Tahrir al-Sham official on Turkey's intervention to implement Astana: "That’s not the reality."
Below is a translation of a 13 October Telegram post by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (previously Jabhat al-Nusrah) media official Muhammad Nazzal (“Abu Khattab al-Maqdisi”).
This post represents the purest distillation I’ve seen of how Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seems to be justifying the limited entrance of Turkish forces in the northern Idlib/western Aleppo countryside, including the various pragmatic considerations at work and the mutually agreed-upon, explicit conditions of the Turkish presence…
Foreign Affairs: "Don't Fund Syria's Reconstruction"
New from me from for Foreign Affairs:
As the regime of Bashar al-Assad draws closer to a victory on the battlefield, domestic Syrian and international attention has turned to the next fight – the terms of Syrian reconstruction. The opposition’s Western backers have supposed that reconstruction funds are their last useful means of extracting concessions from the regime, while experts have theorized how reconstruction efforts can be insulated from the politics of re-legitimizing Assad…
المدن: "مسألة البادية وانهاء الجيش الحر"
مقالتي الأولى لصحيفة “المدن”، حول معارك البادية والموقف الأمريكي…
حلب اليوم، "سورية في أسبوع": "هل تغيرت أولويات الغرب في سورية؟ أم كانت مواقفه السابقة مجرد متاجرة سياسية؟"
مشاركتي في برنامج “سورية في أسبوع” على قناة “حلب اليوم” حول أولويات الغرب في سوريا وآفاق القضية السورية…
The Century Foundation: "Desert Base Is Displaced Syrians’ Last Line of Defense"
New from me for The Century Foundation:
In the Badiyah desert, the Syrian regime’s eastward advance has jammed together America’s covert war in Syria, its overt campaign against the Islamic State, and two camps holding tens of thousands of vulnerable displaced people, all in one shrinking space…
War on the Rocks: "A Deadly Delusion: Were Syria's Rebels Ever Going to Defeat the Jihadists?"
New from me for War on the Rocks:
Whatever else Syria’s rebels were, and whatever the reasons for backing them – they were never going to be a “counter-terrorism force” …
The Century Foundation / Carnegie Middle East Center: "Reform, Revolution, Culture: How to Resist Arab Authoritarianism?"
Below is the video of our panel from the “Arab Politics beyond the Uprisings” launch event, held on July 13, 2017 at Beirut’s Carnegie Middle East Center. The panel featured me, Asya El-Meehy, and Aron Lund, and was moderated by Michael Wahid Hanna…
Carnegie Middle East Center's Diwan: "What’s Next in Idlib?"
I talk to Carnegie Middle East Center’s Diwan – two weeks ago, so before Hayat Tahrir al-Sham / Jabhat al-Nusrah’s outright takeover – about the situation in rebel Idlib…