Latest writing and updates:
VICE News: "Syrian Fighters Say the Ceasefire Is Getting Shakier and Shakier"
New from me on VICE News…
New from me on VICE News:
Syria is caught in a sort of half-war limbo. The internationally sponsored ceasefire remains in effect nationwide, but isolated clashes across the country seems to be escalating, and there are fears that a battle south of Aleppo city may be spiraling out of control.
But even as violence ticks up, it seems no one thinks the ceasefire will actually end. So long as Russia and the U.S. remain vested in a political solution, sources say, Syrians are locked in a war that’s mostly off, partially on.
https://news.vice.com/article/syrian-fighters-say-the-ceasefire-is-shakier-and-shakier
VICE News: "Rebels Ignored the Islamic State in South Syria, and It's Come Back to Haunt Them"
New from me and Avi Asher-Schapiro at VICE News…
New from me and Avi Asher-Schapiro at VICE News:
Southern rebels have mostly been ignoring their local proto-ISIS creeps – in part, they say, because the US and their other state backers told them to. But now ISIS has come for them, and they're realizing they made a mistake.
World Politics Review: "Separating Nusra Front From Syria’s Rebels Is Easier Said Than Done"
New from me on World Politics Review:
Syria’s ceasefire has made clear the growing rift between the country’s mainstream opposition and Jabhat al-Nusrah, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. But at the same time, it’s also highlighted how Nusrah it tangled up in and dependent on the opposition. It turns out that Nusrah is a symbiote – it can only succeed when it is attached to a Syrian opposition at war…
New from me on World Politics Review:
Syria’s ceasefire has made clear the growing rift between the country’s mainstream opposition and Jabhat al-Nusrah, al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate. But at the same time, it's also highlighted how Nusrah it tangled up in and dependent on the opposition. It turns out that Nusrah is a symbiote – it can only succeed when it is attached to a Syrian opposition at war.
The Daily Beast: "Al-Qaeda’s Screwing up in Syria"
New from me on The Daily Beast:
New static between Jabhat al-Nusrah and mainstream Syrian rebels and a half-tell-all, half-anti-Nusrah jeremiad by the son of the founder of modern jihadism have embroiled the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate in new controversy. Now opposition Syrians are debating Nusrah’s place in the rebellion and re-litigating some of the grimier episodes in north Syria’s recent history…
New from me on The Daily Beast:
New static between Jabhat al-Nusrah and mainstream Syrian rebels and a half-tell-all, half-anti-Nusrah jeremiad by the son of the founder of modern jihadism have embroiled the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate in new controversy. Now opposition Syrians are debating Nusrah's place in the rebellion and re-litigating some of the grimier episodes in north Syria's recent history.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/05/al-qaeda-s-screwing-up-in-syria.html
War on the Rocks: "Are CIA-Backed Syrian Rebels Really Fighting Pentagon-Backed Syrian Rebels?"
New from me on War on the Rocks:
Everyone, take a breath. CIA-backed Syrian rebels are not fighting Pentagon-backed Syrian rebels…
New from me on War on the Rocks:
Everyone, take a breath. CIA-backed Syrian rebels are not fighting Pentagon-backed Syrian rebels.
http://warontherocks.com/2016/03/are-cia-backed-syrian-rebels-really-fighting-pentagon-backed-syrian-rebels/
VICE News: "The Syrian Ceasefire Is Held Together by an Unlikely Group of Frenemies — and WhatsApp"
New from me on VICE News…
New from me on VICE News:
It's been clear for a minute that Syria's ceasefire has brought violence way down nationwide. But I spoke to diplomats involved and Syrians on the ground, and it turns out that in addition to the overall reduction of violence, they've also managed to shut down specific ceasefire violations with help from WhatsApp and hustle. (I know, I was surprised, too.)
VICE News: "How Five Years of War Has Fractured Syria Into at Least Four States"
New from me on VICE News…
New from me and Avi Asher-Schapiro at VICE News:
After five years of war, Syria is split into parts that are irreconcilable – and inseparable.
World Politics Review: "PKK Links, Nusra Parallels Make Syrian Kurds a Troubling U.S. Partner"
New from me on World Politics Review:
At least on this, Erdogan is right: The U.S. government’s absurd, untenable denials of YPG-PKK links are – surprise – absurd and untenable…
New from me on World Politics Review:
At least on this, Erdogan is right: The U.S. government’s absurd, untenable denials of YPG-PKK links are – surprise – absurd and untenable.
VICE News: "A Ceasefire Is Beginning in Syria — Except Where It Won't"
New from me on VICE News…
New from me on VICE News:
With a nationwide ceasefire set to go into effect tonight, there’s still little clarity on who it will actually cover – so at least in northern Syria, people just assume they’ll be bombed.
https://news.vice.com/article/a-ceasefire-is-beginning-in-syria-except-where-it-wont
Syria:Direct Interview
New two-part interview with me at Syria:Direct…
New two-part interview with me at Syria:Direct:
"Sam Heller on this moment in Syria: 'Building towards a soft partition,'" 24 February 2016.
"Sam Heller: 'Fighting over towns that exist in name only,'" 25 February 2016.
VICE News: "The Battle for Aleppo Shows That US Strategy in Syria Is in Tatters"
New from me on VICE News…
As fighting in north Aleppo rages out of control, all the things that don't make sense about U.S. strategy to combat ISIS in Syria are all not making sense, all at once.
World Politics Review: "Handing Syria to Russia Would Inflame Jihadism Abroad"
New from me on World Politics Review:
So all the West cares about in Syria is counterterrorism? Well, here’s what would a regime victory would do to jihadism, inside and outside the country…
New from me on World Politics Review:
So all the West cares about in Syria is counterterrorism? Well, here’s what would a regime victory would do to jihadism, inside and outside the country.
VICE News: "The Syrian Regime Is Close to a Victory That Could Turn the War"
New from me on VICE News…
New from me on VICE News:
The Syrian regime just cut rebels’ main Aleppo supply line, and it’s a disaster for the opposition.
https://news.vice.com/article/the-syrian-regime-is-close-to-a-victory-that-could-turn-the-war
VICE News: "Syria Peace Talks in Geneva Get Suspended Even Before Really Beginning"
New from me on VICE News…
New from me on VICE News:
Syria peace talks in Geneva have already flamed out. A guide to the main players and the basic disconnect that stopped negotiations before they could start:
https://news.vice.com/article/syria-peace-talks-in-geneva-get-suspended-even-before-really-beginning
VICE News: "Faced With A Russian Onslaught, Syrian Rebels Are Calling for Help From All Muslims"
New from me on VICE News…
New from me on VICE News:
Russian and Iranian intervention has turned the military balance in Syria’s civil war, and rebels fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime are struggling to cope. Some rebels have decided they urgently need more men – Syrian or not – and have issued calls to arms not just to able-bodied Syrians, but to the entire Muslim nation. But while Syrians in the opposition agree the military situation is dire, they disagree on whether they want a new wave of foreign fighters, especially after many of those who came before went nuts and joined ISIS.
War on the Rocks: "A Cause for All Turks: Turkey and Syria's Turkmen Rebels"
New from me and S.G. Grimaldi on War on the Rocks:
The plight of Syria’s Turkmen minority has rallied groups across Turkey’s political spectrum, from pan-Islamists to hard-right Turkish nationalists. This mobilization is getting needed support to civilians inside Syria – but it may also be reshaping Turkish politics, as advocacy for the Turkmen helps to mainstream organizations that had been on the country’s political fringe…
New from me and S.G. Grimaldi on War on the Rocks:
The plight of Syria’s Turkmen minority has rallied groups across Turkey’s political spectrum, from pan-Islamists to hard-right Turkish nationalists. This mobilization is getting needed support to civilians inside Syria – but it may also be reshaping Turkish politics, as advocacy for the Turkmen helps to mainstream organizations that had been on the country’s political fringe.
http://warontherocks.com/2016/01/a-cause-for-all-turks-turkey-and-syrias-turkmen-rebels/
World Politics Review: "Why Diplomatic Talks to End Syria’s Civil War Will Fail—Again"
New from me on World Politics Review:
Everyone is currently very excited about negotiations between Syria’s regime and opposition to resolve the country’s brutal war. But maybe don’t be? Because talks aren’t going to work, come on…
New from me on World Politics Review:
Everyone is currently very excited about negotiations between Syria’s regime and opposition to resolve the country’s brutal war. But maybe don’t be? Because talks aren’t going to work, come on.
Ahrar al-Sham media activist: "I won’t claim that al-Fou’ah and Kafarya are entirely besieged."
Below is something I thought might be pertinent amid the coverage of Madaya, the Damascus countryside town that has recently been subjected to a crushing siege by the regime and Hizbullah. I’ve translated a response from Ahrar al-Sham media activist Marwan Khalil (Abu Khaled al-I’lami) to criticism of Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusrah’s blockade of the Shi’ite regime loyalist towns of Kafarya and al-Fou’ah. The criticism, which Ahrar and Nusrah have received from multiple opposition quarters: Their siege of the towns actually isn’t intense enough…
Below is something I thought might be pertinent amid the coverage of Madaya, the Damascus countryside town that has recently been subjected to a crushing siege by the regime and Hizbullah. I’ve translated a response from Ahrar al-Sham media activist Marwan Khalil (Abu Khaled al-I’lami) to criticism of Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusrah’s blockade of the Shi’ite regime loyalist towns of Kafarya and al-Fou’ah. The criticism, which Ahrar and Nusrah have received from multiple opposition quarters: Their siege of the towns actually isn’t intense enough.
Kafarya and al-Fou’ah are Idlib towns that have been stranded deep behind rebel lines since the Jeish al-Fateh (Army of Conquest) rebel coalition, of which Ahrar and Nusrah are the main components, swept the regime out of most of Idlib province in early 2015. The two towns were half of the September 2015 deal negotiated by, reportedly, Ahrar al-Sham and Iran; the other half were the Damascus countryside towns of al-Zabadani and Madaya.
Since then, Ahrar and Nusrah have been obliged, somewhat awkwardly, to respect a truce with pro-regime militias inside al-Fou’ah and Kafarya. They’ve also had to allow shipments of supplies to enter the two towns and, as part of a December swap, some residents of the towns to leave. Relief to any town under the truce has only been allowed on a reciprocal basis – thus, relief to Madaya this week had to be delivered simultaneously with relief to al-Fou’ah and Kafarya.
The deal has attracted critics, who argue that Ahrar and Nusrah have made some impermissible compromise with the regime and its allies or – to put it in crude sectarian terms – are “feeding the Rawafidh (Shi’a).” Abu Khaled was responding to a report from Murasel Souri (Syrian correspondent), a pro-opposition Syrian activist news outlet, claiming that shipments of food, water and diesel are being diverted by Ahrar and Nusrah to al-Fou’ah and Kafarya and that any talk of a “siege” is purely for media consumption. Others have echoed similar criticisms, ranging from premiere Salafi-jihadist theorist Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi to Syrian Revolutionaries Front chief Jamal Ma’rouf, a southern Idlib rebel warlord whom Nusrah ran out of the country in November 2014. (Ma’rouf’s tweets are translated below the jump.)
Nidhal Sbeih, former spokesman for the Syrian Revolutionary Front: “Picture of the day: One of the lions of Jabhat al-Nusrah proudly protects a bus of al-Fou’ah and Kafarya’s criminals.”
To be clear: I don’t think this intra-opposition static provides the whole story of conditions in al-Fou’ah and Kafarya, on which no one seems to have reported satisfactorily.
My impression, and what I’ve heard from others, is that Ahrar and Nusrah have not exercised leverage on al-Fou’ah and Kafarya (and thus Iran, Hizbullah and the Assad regime) by imposing the sort of crushing deprivation we’ve seen in Madaya. As Abu Khaled argues, al-Fou’ah and Kafarya benefit not just from relief shipments that fall under the Zabadani truce, but also from opportunistic residents of neighboring towns willing to sell supplies and from regime airdrops. Instead, rebels have leaned on the towns by shelling them indiscriminately and threatening them through conventional military means. Indeed, we saw Saudi jihadist evangelist and chief Jeish al-Fateh judge Abdullah al-Muheisini argue earlier this month al-Fou’ah should be “exterminated” if the siege on Madaya weren’t lifted.
That said, by at least some accounts – in one case, local militiamen who had been evacuated to Lebanon – residents of the two Idlib towns are also desperate enough to eat grass. I don’t know.
But the political dimensions of the al-Fou’ah–Kafarya siege and the controversy it has stirred within some parts of the opposition are knowable.
In some ways, the criticisms of Ahrar and Nusrah are a mirror image of loyalist outrage over the Syrian regime’s recent truce with Homs’s rebel-held al-Wa’ar neighborhood. They seem to be more evidence of the popular resistance – on both sides – to any deal, on any terms.
Ahrar al-Sham media activist Abu Khaled al-I’lami, January 7 2015
“In response to the accusations of treason leveled by Murasel Souri against the factions active on the Kafarya and al-Fou’ah fronts”
My revolution has taught me that there are opportunists who wait to take advantage of some moments.
When Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusrah lost nearly 56 men in their last battle with [regime forces in al-Zabadani and al-Fou’ah], we found that everyone was silent. But when we managed to get our wounded out of besieged al-Zabadani in exchange for al-Fou’ah’s wounded leaving, suddenly we were feeding the Rawafidh (derog., Shi’a) and taking money. Anyone who says, “Attack al-Fou’ah,” says that because he doesn’t have a relative under siege [in al-Zabadani]. All of our people have learned this language, these accusations of treason and empty theorizing. It reminds me of when we used to play strategy games.
Yes, I won’t claim that al-Fou’ah and Kafarya are entirely besieged. There are failures to which everyone admits, and anyone who denies them is as deluded as those who level accusations at us.
And some of the reasons for that:
The presence of a number of factions around al-Fou’ah and Kafarya and the differences between them has led to gaps on the front lines. This happens on any front line, and it’s something from which the Syrian revolution has suffered since the start, and for which all the factions are to blame – within the bounds of advice and constructive criticism, not accusations of betrayal or acting like some opportunistic hustler.
Al-Fou’ah and Kafarya are surrounded by a long perimeter, and so encircling them requires large numbers of men. Because of that, some weak-willed people in the surrounding towns sell them food, and they’ll be held accountable for that.
In addition, the regime provides them with food by plane, albeit not a lot.
I wrote this not to wipe out some of this totally unrealistic talk, but rather in the interest of advice and criticism, so that Murasel Souri might not be biased to a particular side. The best thing, as I see it, is for someone to be honest, even if someone runs against his ideology.
“The one who hears is not like the one who sees.”
Marwan Khalil, Abu Khaled al-I’lami.
Syrian Revolutionaries Front commander Jamal Ma’rouf, October 5 2015
Jamal Ma’rouf, commander of the Syrian Revolutionary Front: “A question for al-Muheisini: Is Russia is exempt from the truce between you, Bashar and Iran? Because we see that Russia has only gotten more ferocious since the truce!? Is this not a betrayal???”
Jamal Ma’rouf: “If al-Fou’ah and Kafarya’s fighters were al-Nusrah’s captives, Russia wouldn’t dare bomb the positions of the mujahideen. But a truce to smuggle out Shi’a mercenaries, is that what made Russia so cocky?”
VICE News: "How Assad Is Using Sieges and Hunger to Grab More of the 'Useful Syria'"
New from me on VICE News…
New from me on VICE News:
As the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad wages an offensive with Russia’s backing on rebels across the country, behind the front lines it has been consolidating its hold in Syria’s west.This is the part of the country sometimes called “useful Syria,” home to most of its population and economic centers. The consolidation of regime control here may be a harbinger of a future, divided country — or it may create a base from which the regime can launch attacks on the rest of Syria.
https://news.vice.com/article/how-assad-is-using-sieges-and-hunger-to-grab-more-of-the-useful-syria
VICE News: "Turkey Is Betting on Aleppo Rebels to Get Islamic State Out of Border Area"
New from me on VICE News…
New from me on VICE News:
In the wake of the ISIS’s November attack on Paris, carried out by European fighters returning from the Syrian battlefield, the U.S. and Turkey have been debating how to shut ISIS’s last open border. US officials have been publicly leaning on Turkey to immediately close its border with ISIS in Syria’s northern Aleppo province and deploy thousands of troops on the frontier. The Turkish government has proposed instead that Turkey and the US-led coalition first back Syrian rebels who can drive IS out of the area and create a rebel-controlled “safe zone.”
But amid this public back-and-forth, Turkey’s plan is already underway — and, according to local rebels, it is making some progress.
https://news.vice.com/article/turkey-bets-on-aleppo-rebels-to-get-islamic-state-out-of-border-area