Latest writing and updates:
The Century Foundation: “Syrians Are Going Hungry. Will the West Act?”
My new report for The Century Foundation: Syrians are going hungry, and in unprecedented, alarming numbers – WFP reports that nearly 60 percent of the country's population is food insecure. So what's behind Syria's hunger crisis? And what can U.S. and other Western policymakers do about it?
The Daily Beast: “Biden’s Syria Airstrikes May Feel Like Trump Déjà Vu. Here’s What’s Different.”
I wrote a quick piece for The Daily Beast on how to read the Biden Administration's airstrikes on Iran-linked paramilitaries in Syria this week…
War on the Rocks: “Redefining Victory in America’s War Against the Islamic State in Syria”
At War on the Rocks today, I have a new article urging the incoming Biden team to revisit U.S. counter-ISIS aims in Syria, after the Trump Administration twisted the definition of counter-ISIS victory to justify pursuing all sorts of other, unrelated policy ends…
ناس نيوز: “أزمة النزوح … وأصعب تحدياتها”
مقالي لموقع “ناس نيوز” حول أزمة النزوح في العراق، وأصعب أوجهها: العوائل النازحة التي يُنظر إليها على أنها مرتبطة بتنظيم "الدولة"، والتي تتطلب معضلتها جهود خاصة من قبل الحكومة العراقية وشركائها، ليس فقط من أجل ضمان حقوق تلك العوائل كمواطنين عراقيين، بل من أجل تجاوز العراق لتجربة التنظيم وتحقيق الاستقرار الدائم…
War on the Rocks: “What Are America’s Sanctions on Syria Good for?”
I have a new article at War on the Rocks today, this time on U.S. sanctions on Syria.
Proponents of Syria sanctions tend to advocate for them in moralistic, hortatory terms: "To stop the Assad regime's atrocities, we have to try."
But U.S. sanctions on Syria won't "stop atrocities." No one seriously expects them to, or to accomplish any of their other stated aims...
The Islamic State Conceptualizes Guerrilla Warfare
Below is a translation of the editorial from issue 236 of the Islamic State’s weekly newsletter al-Naba, in which the group theorizes guerrilla warfare.
In the editorial, the Islamic State offers its membership a religious-jurisprudential justification for hit-and-run guerrilla warfare when they are outmatched conventionally…
International Crisis Group: “When Measuring ISIS’s ‘Resurgence,’ Use the Right Standard”
Out today, I have a new commentary for International Crisis Group.
Too often our discussion of ISIS's capabilities in Iraq and the group's "resurgence" is couched in terms of its 2014-15 apex – not only with hyperbolic claims that its operations have returned to the 2013-14 levels that immediately preceded that peak, but also with attempts to tamp down that sort of alarmism by pointing how diminished the group is now compared to its bygone "caliphate”…
War on the Rocks: “Leak Reveals Jihadists’ Weakening Grip in Syria’s Idlib”
I have a new article today, for War on the Rocks.
I wrote about a leaked recording of an address by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) official Abu al-Fateh al-Farghali to a gathering of the Syrian jihadist group's fighters earlier this year…
War on the Rocks: “In Iraq, Restraint Is America’s Best Option” (with Maria Fantappie)
Maria Fantappie and I have a new article today at War on the Rocks, this time on the latest tit-for-tat violence between the United States and Iran-linked Iraqi paramilitaries – violence that is destructive for Iraq and, if it continues, is headed towards a strategic defeat for America…
Islamic State: Substantial, continuous "returns"
Below is another translation from issue 192 of the Islamic State’s weekly newsletter al-Naba, this time the latest in a series of columns on operational guidance titled “Take Care.”
This seems notable in terms of how it presents a sort of Unified Theory of operations, conceptualizing Islamic State units’ modal shift from high-volume rudimentary violence to more sophisticated attacks, to in-between hybrid approaches, depending on that unit’s capability and circumstance…
Islamic State: "In the eyes of his enemies an army of heroes..."
Below is a translation of the editorial from issue 192 of the Islamic State’s weekly newsletter al-Naba. The editorial – which is presumably aimed at the Islamic State’s core supporters, including militants active in the field – takes a derisive tone on Iraqi security forces’ pursuit of Islamic State fighters, and emphasizes the futility and emptiness of their efforts. Per the editorial, Iraqi forces’ energetic operations are driven by their fear of once more ceding the country’s countryside to the insurgent group, allowing it to reorganize and penetrate Iraq’s cities. Islamic State militants must therefore cultivate that fear and recall the divine reward awaiting them, even as they now live as fugitives…
War on the Rocks: “A Glimpse into the Islamic State’s External Operations, Post-Caliphate”
Today at War on the Rocks, I have a new article on the self-proclaimed Islamic State's ability to carry out international terror attacks, even after the loss of its territorial "caliphate".
One of the main objectives of the U.S.-led military campaign against the Islamic State’s “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria was to deny the group a base to plot “external operations.” Weeks after the group lost its last territorial foothold in Syria, however, it claimed its deadliest-ever international terrorist attack, in Sri Lanka. So what global threat does a post-"caliphate" Islamic State still pose? …
Valdai Club: “Idlib: Maintaining the Sochi Deal Is By No Means an Ideal Solution, but for Now It Is the Best One on Offer”
Now up at Valdai Club, I have a companion piece to Crisis Group's latest Idlib report.
For anyone who might have been intimidated by the report's length, this is a more bite-sized version of its key points and its policy argument. It's also a little more Russia-centered, given both the outlet and Moscow's centrality to any solution. Idlib presents no attractive, easy policy choices. Still, there are good reasons for Russia to avoid a wide-open battle for Idlib, and instead double down on the Sochi agreement and its partnership with Turkey.
“سيناريوهات”: “ما مصير "داعش" بعد احتدام المعارك بآخر معاقله؟”
مشاركتي في برنامج “سيناريوهات” على قناة الجزيرة، حول وضع تنظيم “داعش” بعد سقوط آخر معاقله في سوريا…
Interview: Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations: “The Complex Phenomenon of Religious Extremism”
My interview with Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations about Salafi-jihadist militancy, sectarianism, and discriminating counterterrorism policy…
International Crisis Group: “Rightsizing the Transnational Jihadist Threat”
Out today, I have a new Crisis Group commentary pushing back on some eye-popping numerical estimates of Salafi-jihadists worldwide that are alarmist and unhelpful.
"Salafi-jihadism" is a specific thing that poses a specific threat. Playing fast and loose with definitions and lumping in large numbers of non-jihadist militants can only muddle policy thinking…
War on the Rocks, “‘Frogs’ and ‘Geckos’: Syria’s Jihadists Speak the Language of Rebellion”
At War on the Rocks today, I have a new article about the dual local/transnational character of Syrian jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
The jumping-off point for the article is a sort of exceptional video from Tahrir al-Sham, a seemingly unscripted roundtable discussion among three of its top leaders about “reconciliation” (Damascus-style). Their conversation is an insight not only into their substantive positions, but also how they categorize and make sense of the Syrian war around them…
Tahrir al-Sham's Abu al-Yaqadhan al-Masri: "The coming days are pregnant with surprises."
Below is a 17 September Telegram post from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham shar’i Abu al-Yaqadhan al-Masri, one of a number of Tahrir al-Sham officials/media personalities who have reacted unfavorably to the announcement of a new Turkish-Russian deal for Syria’s Idlib province…
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's Abu Ikrimah al-Urduni on Idlib protests: "Brothers, a very important issue..."
Below are translations of two voice recordings purported to be of Tahrir al-Sham emir “Abu Ikrimah al-Urduni,” via anti-Jabhat al-Nusrah/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group “JAN Violations.” The voice messages are notable for their apparently acute sensitivity to the optics of Idlib’s protests and those protests’ portrayal in foreign media, which Abu Ikrimah sees as directly linked to action against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Abu Ikrimah coaches his Tahrir al-Sham audience on flexibility and subtlety in dealing with protesters in order to avoid embarrassing anti-Tahrir al-Sham scenes…
The Atlantic: “Russia Can Stop a Slaughter in Idlib”
My piece for The Atlantic about Syria's Idlib province and the reasons to forestall a deadly Syrian military offensive…